Age Structure & the Workforce
|
China is rapidly aging; by 2050 half the population with be over 45 and a quarter of the population will be age 65 or older. Because of its early and steep fertility decline, China will age sooner and faster than other developing countries. China's age structure will soon be top heavy with old people. In the future, the workforce will rapidly age as the number of young workers declines; total working age population will peak in 2015 at about 1 billion, and then fall 13% by 2050. Total population is projected to shrink by 2030.
|
The population aged 65+ has been steadily increasing and will more than triple, growing from 100 million in 2005 to over 300 million by 2050. This can be attributed by the steep fertility decline, and due to this the number of children has been declining since 1975. This steep decline in number of children will in turn decrease the size of the working age population. Working age population is projected to peak in 2015, then fall 14% by 2050. Total population is projected to start declining in 2030. Over the past several decades China has benefited from the demographic dividend of an increased number and share of working-age people coupled with high productivity growth. China has a few more years to capitalize on this demographic dividend. After that, the projected decline in working-age population will pose significant challenges for China’s sustained growth: absent sustained productivity gains and labor market changes, China's economic engine could stall. Thus, we can expect greater pressure for productivity gains as well as changes in labor market structure.
By 2050, 73% of China's population of 1.4 billion people will live in urban areas. By 2050, the urban population in China will reach 1 billion, almost twice the number in 2005. With a doubling of the urban population, the cities in China will face enormous challenges in providing services and maintaining infrastructure. At the same time, the decline in rural population will pose the challenge of maintaining living standards and social services in those areas.
|